FG May Issue Fuel Import Permits Again by Mid-February

The Federal Government is likely to resume granting permits for importing petrol and diesel starting in mid-February 2026 to avert potential supply shortfalls. This follows a temporary suspension of approvals by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA).

Industry insiders indicate the regulator could begin approving new licences later this month or in early March, representing the first permits issued this year. The earlier pause was intended to restrict imports to volumes necessary to supplement domestic refinery production and was also tied to recent leadership transitions at the agency.

Import permits are typically issued quarterly and are valid for three months, raising logistical questions about how approvals will be managed now that the first quarter is already underway.

This development coincides with a notable drop in crude oil supply to the Dangote Refinery, which fell to approximately 250,000 barrels per day in January from 350,000 bpd in December its lowest level in 16 months. This reduction, combined with ongoing maintenance on major refinery units, has heightened concerns about fuel shortages, renewing market demand for imports.

Although fuel consumption typically decreases after the festive season, rising domestic pump prices have increased the economic appeal of imported cargoes. The price of petrol rose about 14% to N799 per litre in late January, up from N699 in December.

In related commentary, the Dangote Refinery has warned that petrol prices could approach N1,000 per litre if marketers predominantly choose coastal shipping to transport fuel instead of loading directly from the refinery’s gantry. The company estimates coastal logistics add roughly N75 per litre, which could translate to an extra annual economic burden of N1.75 trillion.

The refinery emphasised that gantry loading remains the most cost-efficient method, as it avoids port charges and maritime expenses. While marketers are free to select their preferred evacuation method, Dangote cautioned that widespread reliance on coastal shipping risks eroding the recent price benefits achieved through local refining.