Expert Weighs In on U.S. Choice of Sokoto for Nigeria Airstrikes

A security expert has offered insights into why the United States selected Sokoto State for its recent airstrikes in Nigeria, rather than regions more severely impacted by terrorism.

According to international lawyer and bilateral affairs expert Emmanuel Ogebe, the choice appears to stem from U.S. operational familiarity with the area. He noted that Sokoto was the site of a previous U.S. special forces mission in 2020, which rescued an American citizen from kidnappers.

Ogebe described Sokoto as an “unusual choice” for a first strike, as it is not the epicenter of jihadist activity in the North-East or the violent conflict in the North-Central region. He suggested the North-West may have been a “safer operational bet” due to this prior experience and its proximity to Niger, where the U.S. formerly had military bases and greater intelligence knowledge.

He supports the Nigerian government’s claim that the operation was a joint effort, citing a near-failed 2020 mission where last-minute Nigerian clearance was required. This history, he argues, makes unilateral U.S. action unlikely now.

Ogebe also linked the strikes to the U.S. loss of bases in Niger after a recent coup, which has forced a recalibration of its Sahel strategy. However, he questioned the strategic impact, pointing out that Sokoto is not the primary location for mass civilian attacks, particularly those affecting Christian communities in the Middle Belt.

He raised the possibility that the operation could be connected to the abduction of an American missionary pilot in Niger, suggesting a specific U.S. interest may be at stake. “From a strategic standpoint, Sokoto does not explain itself unless there is a specific American interest being protected,” Ogebe concluded.

Emmanuel Ogebe is a Washington D.C.-based human rights lawyer known for his advocacy on Nigeria, having contributed to the U.S. designation of Boko Haram as a terrorist organization and Nigeria as a Country of Particular Concern.